[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091708
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-091845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT WED AUG 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF  SRN MO...NRN AR...WRN TN...NRN MS...NRN
AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 091708Z - 091845Z

RISK FOR STRONG STORMS WITH HIGHLY LOCALIZED/BRIEF DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

WEAK CAPPING ON NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 700 MB RIDGE IS
ALREADY ALLOWING INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 18-21Z ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WESTWARD INTO
THE OZARK PLATEAU.  SIZABLE MIXED LAYER CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 2000
J/KG...AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS...PRIMARILY WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.
HOWEVER...CURRENT/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY PRECIPITATION CORES...WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS.  THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL
INCREASE IN NUMBER AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN
THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

..KERR.. 08/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

35959420 36539298 37109067 36998786 36098639 34608616
33508688 33018830 33198952 34189027 34629137 34349392
35199448

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