[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 210716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210715
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-210915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN AR...NRN LA...NRN MS...TN...NRN
AL...NWRN GA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 229...

VALID 210715Z - 210915Z

WW SHOULD BE CONTINUED ALONG/NE OF LA/AR MCS.  AREAS SE AND E OF WW
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW.

ORGANIZED COMPLEXES OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
SWRN PORTIONS WW...FROM E-CENTRAL AR TO N-CENTRAL LA -- AND ALSO
ACROSS ERN PORTIONS WRN-MIDDLE TN.  MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN
AR...NERN LA AND NWRN MS GIVEN NEARLY SFC-BASED INFLOW LAYERS
EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  RUC WIND PROFILES IN LOW LEVELS
APPEAR TOO WEAK ACROSS NRN MS COMPARED TO OBSERVED VWP...WITH RADAR
DERIVED 0-1 KM SRH REACHING 300-400 J/KG RANGE AND OBSERVED 0-6 KM
AGL SHEAR AROUND 50 KT.  THIS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND
CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS...FROM
MCN...20 W BHM...20 WNW MSL.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM AL/TN BORDER AREA ENEWD ALMOST TO TYS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING IN ZONE OF ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST
ADVECTION...WELL N OF SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  AS ELEVATED AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE NEWD ACROSS SRN-MIDDLE TN...ERN TN AND
EXTREME NWRN GA...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
NEITHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR NOR ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD BE AS LARGE AS
FARTHER W IN WW...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM
THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES NEWD 20-25 KT.

ISOLATED TSTMS PRODUCED HAIL TO NEAR .88 INCH DIAMETER INVOF
TCL...WITH LEFT SPLIT MOVING NNEWD ACROSS AREA BETWEEN TCL-HSV.
ALTHOUGH AIR MASS HAS DIABATICALLY STABILIZED IN SKIN LAYER NEAR
SFC...EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS STILL ARE SFC-BASED...AMIDST ENOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

32299338 33049253 34809148 36598573 36458455 35678404
34658485 33648609 33248759 34488754

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