[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 210504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210504
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-210700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS / SWRN TN / EXTREME NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 229...

VALID 210504Z - 210700Z

THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING. LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED AS WELL.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ROTATION DEVELOPING WITH CELLS OVER NRN MS / SWRN
TN. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOWER 70S TEMPERATURES INTO NRN
MS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDS SURFACE BASED
PARCELS WITH LITTLE CIN IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FURTHER...AREA VAD WIND PROFILES ARE SHOWING STRONGER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR THAN CURRENTLY ANALYZED BY RUC. WHILE THEY MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
STRONG WHEN COMPARED TO LOCAL ACARS/TAMDAR SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS AT
LEAST 20-25 KT VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW EXIST OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS
RESULTING IN 0-1 SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2. THUS...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
BEING SURFACE DECOUPLING AS REFLECTED IN WEAK SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF
5 KTS OR LESS. A POTENTIAL SIGN OF INCREASED TORNADO THREAT MAY BE
AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF STORMS AND WITHIN RELATIVELY
WARMER / 70S / TEMPERATURES.

..JEWELL.. 04/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

33859016 34349025 34958944 35298897 35448815 35248788
34538789 34128817

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