[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 150822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150822
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-151015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NRN AR/SRN MO/WRN KS/SRN IL/SRN IN/PARTS OF
WRN AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 862...863...

VALID 150822Z - 151015Z

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 862 AND 863...WITH THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN ALSO CONTINUING -- ESPECIALLY FROM SERN MO ENEWD
ALONG/INVOF THE OH RIVER.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO A NARROW ZONE INVOF MAIN WARM FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING
FROM SURFACE LOW OVER N CENTRAL OK EWD ACROSS FAR SRN MO AND THEN
ENEWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE OH RIVER.  THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
LIMITED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL
ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

THOUGH INSTABILITY IS GREATER S OF WARM FRONT...MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BE WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARY.  EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY AND
AREAS N FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH MORE ISOLATED/CELLULAR
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WW 862/863 S OF WARM
FRONT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NWD TOWARD THE FRONT.  THOUGH THIS MORE
CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE THUS
FAR...TORNADO THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE SHOULD A FEW STRONGER STORMS
EVOLVE GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR RAPID ACQUISITION OF ROTATION WITH ANY
STRONGER CELL.

WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND DRY SLOT
APPARENTLY DEVELOPING/SPREADING EWD ACCORDING TO LATEST WV IMAGERY
-- IN SUPPORT OF MODEL FORECASTS...EXPECT MAIN SURFACE-BASED SEVERE
THREAT TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS WW 862/AWAY FROM CENTRAL OK
WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 11/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

36719706 38308569 36318602 35269111 34669583

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net