[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 142341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142340
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-150115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2418
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SRN MO...AR...WRN TN...NWRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 861...

VALID 142340Z - 150115Z

LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN TORNADO WATCH 861 OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE...RADAR ECHOES WERE INCREASING
FROM ERN OK TO NRN AR AND SRN MO. A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS...NORTH AND WEST OF TORNADO WATCH
861...WITHIN THE HOUR.

RAPID CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY NWD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS INTENSIFYING
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS SEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FROM SERN OK INTO CNTRL AR APPEARS TO
BE SURGING NWD ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE AND AIDING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS FROM ERN OK TO NRN AR. WHILE
THIS CONVECTION WAS GENERALLY DEVELOPING ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ADIABATIC COOLING
ALOFT AND A CONTINUING INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN COINCIDENT WITH THIS
AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND INTENSIFYING LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO RESULT
IN GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH TIME. EXPECT THE THREAT OF
ELEVATED SUPERCELL STORMS WITH HAIL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AREA NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR AN INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION LATER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ELEVATED UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE THE MORE IMMINENT
THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM.

..CARBIN.. 11/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

35058877 33289304 34759351 34359525 34949603 36589514
37728993 36848940

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