[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 060941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060940
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-061115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...OH/TN VLYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 060940Z - 061115Z

STRONG NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING ACROSS IL WITH
STRONGEST BELT OF ASCENT SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN OH AND SERN
LWR MI ATTM.  STRONGEST LLJ AXIS WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT NWD FROM THE
 TN VLY TO THE OH VLY WITH 50-70 KTS IN THE H85-H7 LAYER.  STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT WAS COMPENSATING FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS
SRN LWR MI SWD INTO WRN OH TO SUPPORT A LINEAR MCS.  FARTHER
S...INSTABILITY WAS STRONGER OWING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER/MOISTER
BOUNDARY LAYER.  THUS...DESPITE WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE...A MIXED
MODE OF LINE SEGMENTS/DISCRETE CELLS ARE BEING FAVORED.

GIVEN SUCH STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NARROW
AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAINTAINED JUST AHEAD OF THE TSTMS
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM CNTRL OH SWWD ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE
TN.  OVERALL STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED ROTATING
STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL OH SWD INTO MIDDLE
TN...CONTINUING A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT EAST OF THE CURRENT
TORNADO WATCH 845.  AS SUCH...NEW WW/S WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER
PARTS OF THE OH/TN VLYS.

..RACY.. 11/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

35878712 41668234 41678075 36788413 35838511

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