[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 060557
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060557
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-060730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN AR...EXTREME SERN
MO...EXTREME WRN KY...EXTREME WRN TN...S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL
IL...CENTRAL/NRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 843...

VALID 060557Z - 060730Z

CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING EWD 30-40 KT.
 ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT PAST
E EDGE OF WW...AREAS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA SWWD TO WRN TN WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WIND WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
BAND MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN AR...SERN MO..IL AND NWRN INDIANA.
PRESENT SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR-SFC STABILITY AND STRENGTH OF
LOW/MIDLEVEL JETS INDICATE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO
BRING SEVERE WIND TO SFC WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS -- ESPECIALLY
AROUND BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES.  ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
POTENTIAL ALSO LINGERS.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE POCKETS OF
SMALL MLCINH REMAIN OVER SRN IL AND SERN MO.  THESE CINH WEAKNESSES
SHOULD FILL WHILE DIABATIC SFC COOLING CONTINUES IN PRECONVECTIVE
AIR MASS.  AS THIS OCCURS EXPECT EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS TO BECOME
MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME...GRADUALLY REDUCING PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
DOWNDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD ACROSS
INDIANA...WRN TN AND WRN KY.  ACTIVITY MOVING EWD FROM CENTRAL AR
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS EWD TOWARD MS RIVER.

..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...

35039194 36259069 37688958 38288979 38928876 40638791
41538753 41298552 40718487 39308560 36498839 35079028
34869157

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