[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141925
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-142100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0880
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/CENTRAL/NRN VA...NWRN
NC...DC...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN MD...EXTREME ERN PANHANDLE OF WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 141925Z - 142100Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN NERN WV AND NWRN NC...WITH POTENTIAL
PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOIST AXIS -- WITH INTERMITTENT 70S F SFC DEW
POINTS -- FROM SERN VA INTO CENTRAL VA...THEN NNEWD JUST W OF DC
AREA INTO NRN MD.  AIR MASS NEAR THIS MOIST AXIS -- WHICH ACTIVITY
WILL APCH IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS-- HAS BEEN HEATED ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE
TO MLCAPES AS HIGH AS ABOUT 3000 J/KG. MULTICELLULAR LINE SEGMENTS
ARE LIKELY.  FURTHER...WHEN CONSIDERING 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW FROM
ABOUT CENTRAL VA NWD...PRESENCE OF SSWLY TO SSELY SFC FLOW ENLARGES
HODOGRAPHS ENOUGH TO YIELD AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS.  RUC/VWP HODOGRAPHS SHOW PRONOUNCED WEAKNESSES IN FLOW
AROUND 2-3 KM AGL...BUT 0-1 KM AGL SRH AROUND 100 J/KG.  ACTIVITY
SHOULD PRESENT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE INVOF MOIST
AXIS...DIMINISHING AS IT ENTERS RELATIVELY STABLE/LOW-THETAE
BOUNDARY LAYER OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

36118202 37368037 39247811 39667764 39737729 39657685
39217662 38577669 37937719 36667875 35718110 35708162

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