[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141759
VAZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-141930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WV...PORTIONS SERN OH...SWRN PA...WRN VA..EXTREME
WRN NC...NERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 141759Z - 141930Z

POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SEVERE TSTMS OVER DISCUSSION AREA.  WW MAY
BE REQUIRED.

BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DIABATICALLY HEAT AND DESTABILIZE ACROSS
THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER RELATIVELY HIGH TERRAIN FROM SWRN PA
THROUGH NERN TN...BUT ALSO OVER WRN SLOPES NE OF WW 276.  WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS ALREADY EVIDENT OVER MOUNTAINS...WHICH MAY
INTENSIFY...AND SEVERE CONVECTION ALSO CAN MOVE NEWD FROM WW 276,.
DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
SWLY...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR FOR ANY
DISCRETE/RIGHT-MOVING TSTMS TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...INITIALLY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT ABOUT
25 KT -- IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON AS MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD.
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS
BENEATH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GIVEN LIKELY MULTICELLULAR LINE-SEGMENT ORGANIZATION OF MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL BOWS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...

36348285 37548236 38598226 38748291 39408244 39938089
40627983 40347922 39987846 39417843 39027851 38277943
37247983 36368148 35868279

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