[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141500
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141500
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-141630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0875
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN KY...MID TN...NWRN
AL...EXTREME NERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 141500Z - 141630Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z
AS THEY BECOME SFC BASED...IN BROKEN AND NE-SW ORIENTED BAND.
ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.  SOME OF
THIS CORRIDOR MAY REQUIRE WW.

ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS ANALYZED
FROM ARKLATEX REGION NEWD ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL AND SERN IL.  BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY FROM DIABATIC SFC
HEATING...AHEAD OF PRE-EXISTING CONVECTIVE PLUME.  ACCORDINGLY
MODIFIED BNA RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000
J/KG MAY BE REACHED WITHIN 1-2 HOURS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 5OS
TO MID 60S F.  AS A WELL-MIXED LAYER DEVELOPS BENEATH
LFC...POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO
REACH SFC.  WIND PROFILES ACROSS REGION SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH DEEP LAYER...WITH 40-50 KT 500 MB FLOWS OVER
TN/KY WEAKENING TO 25-35 KT SWWD ACROSS NERN MS AND NWRN AL.
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES SUBTLE PERTURBATION CROSSING SERN
IL INTO SWRN INDIANA...WHICH ALSO IS EVIDENT IN LOW-MIDLEVELS IN
COMPOSITED REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS.  SERN EDGE OF WEAK ASCENT AND
ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO BENEFIT
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

34078984 34118939 34418888 34808856 35718766 37338670
37668586 38288452 38168359 37368388 36938431 36538484
35278579 34508682 34008746 33818827 33818908 33888962
34029001

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