[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231641
WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-231745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CST WED MAR 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/SRN WV/ERN TN/SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 231641Z - 231745Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS ERN KY/ERN TN INTO SRN WV AND SWRN VA.  HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN KY WITHIN DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.  SURFACE
HEATING BENEATH VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -22 C AT
500 MB/ HAS RESULTED IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AOB 500
J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...WHILE 15Z RUC INDICATED MUCAPE VALUES
UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID-UPPER LOW...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

LIMITING FACTOR ATTM FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE IS THE FORECAST OF
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  IF INSTABILITY SHOWS SIGNS OF GREATER VALUES
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN A WW WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ERN
KY/ERN TN INTO SRN WV/SWRN VA.

..PETERS.. 03/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...

36728462 37998387 38558295 38658062 36998108 35468241
34988385 35158491

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