[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271735
GAZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-271930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY...ERN/MIDDLE TN...ERN/NRN AL...NRN
GA...FAR SWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 271735Z - 271930Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS/MERGERS THAT OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SVR EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 20Z.

FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS EXISTED OVER THE AREA
TODAY THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED SVR WET MICROBURSTS.
ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED DRY AIR POCKET FROM
700-500 MB THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT NWD INTO THE REGION OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WRN TN BEGINS TO LIFTS NWD. AXIS
OF LOW-MID 70S DEWPTS EXTENDING NNW FROM CENTRAL/SRN GA INTO THE
SCENTRAL KY BENEATH THIS DRY AIR LAYER SUPPORTED DELTA THETA-E
VALUES FROM 25-30 DEGREES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS
FROM NRN GA...NRN/ERN AL NWD INTO CENTRAL KY. IN ADDITION...STEEP
LAPSE RATES/1000 MUCAPE IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ABOVE THE DRY AIR
SHOULD FAVOR STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AS WELL. KINEMATICALLY...A
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE OVER THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL FAVOR
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 15-20 KT OF 1-2 KM WINDS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL
VWPS IN ADDITION TO DOWNDRAFT GENERATED WINDS. WHERE CELL MERGERS
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF NWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP...WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...

37168462 35988407 35158346 33788267 32938324 33008457
33648697 34718720 36038720 37118730 37438564

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