[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 142240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142240
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-150015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY AND TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482...

VALID 142240Z - 150015Z

NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT 00Z...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01-02Z.

BULK OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS NOW SHIFTING EAST OF WW AREA INTO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN NARROW
CORRIDOR ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE/CENTRAL KENTUCKY...IN WAKE OF
SQUALL LINE...AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONT IS WEAK...AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN INSTABILITY AXIS NEXT FEW HOURS...AS NEXT SHORT
WAVE PIVOTS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHERE FORCING STRONGEST...ACROSS KENTUCKY ALONG/EAST
OF A LOUISVILLE/BOWLING GREEN LINE...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE EXCEEDS
2000 J/KG.  THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO COOL WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

..KERR.. 06/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

36808720 37478670 38138633 38148536 37598525 36868556
36188659 35648746 35598777 35978811 36338765

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