[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211652
NCZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-211845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN TN...WRN NC..NRN GA...NE AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 24...

VALID 211652Z - 211845Z

AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LARGE-SCALE BOW
ECHO CONTINUES EWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN AS THE LINE OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY
AXIS AND A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TO ESE
FROM SW TN TO NW GA. THE BOW ECHO IS MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 55 KT JUST
AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL JET OF 70 KT PUNCHING EWD THROUGH TN. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY NEAR THE SRN PART OF THE BOW ECHO...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. AS THE LINE
OUTRUNS THE SOURCE OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...SOME
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...A MINIMAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUES DUE TO THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT. ANY WIND DAMAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS
THE LINE CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

34408678 35228486 35938416 36378351 36158281 35408256
34548354 33828534 33848654



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