[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151843
PAZ000-MDZ000-NYZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-152345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF PA/FAR SRN NY/WRN AND CNTRL MD/ERN WV/WRN
VA/WRN NC

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 151843Z - 152345Z

PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAR
NE OH INTO WRN/SCNTRL PA AND WRN/CNTRL MD. PRECIPITATION RATES
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PA THROUGH 21Z-0ZZ...WITH SNOW
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. FURTHER SOUTH...FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN OCCURRING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E/NE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...ATTRIBUTABLE TO AMPLE UVVS VIA JUXTAPOSITION OF
DPVA/UPPER JET ENHANCED LIFT AND LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME.

IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...15Z RUC SOUNDINGS AND 09Z
SREF CONSENSUS/WINTER ALGORITHMS SUGGEST RELATIVELY LONGEST
DURATION/GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET THROUGH
21Z-00Z SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS WRN/SCNTRL PA...WRN/CNTRL MD...AND ERN
WV/NW VA. IN THESE AREAS...ENCROACHING 800-850 MB LEVEL WARM LAYER
/AS SAMPLED BY 12Z ROANOKE RAOB/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET WHERE SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SFC TEMPS ARE
MAINTAINED...WHICH IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY IN VALLEY AREAS.

WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT...OWING TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...INITIAL COLD WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY BE OVERCOME ALONG/EAST OF
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREDOMINANT
PRECIP-TYPE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE FROM FREEZING RAIN TO
RAIN ACCORDINGLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE NW NC/VA
APPALACHIANS.

..GUYER.. 12/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...GSP...MRX...

39847594 38947734 36697977 35838135 36068174 36598178
37628113 38897964 40268013 41098099 41888047 42387805
41237558

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