[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 150344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150344
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-150945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2564
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA / NWRN SC / WRN NC /  WRN VA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 150344Z - 150945Z

FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 0.10 TO 0.15 INCH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN GA/NWRN SC AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS WRN
PORTIONS OF NC AND VA BY 15/12Z.

00Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA ARE THE PRIMARY
PROCESSES DRIVING LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CURRENTLY OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY.  ERN EDGE
OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS NRN GA
WHERE SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE SUB-FREEZING.  00Z FFC
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT LITTLE SATURATION IS NEEDED AROUND 850 MB TO
SATURATE VERTICAL PROFILE AND GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS THIS HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED.

DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...PRIMARILY FROM THE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED PROCESSES...IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ENEWD
OVERNIGHT...SUSTAINING ONGOING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT REGION.  STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP SURFACE WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE IN IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN A QUITE FAVORABLE VERTICAL THERMAL
STRATIFICATION FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH A 3-4 C WARM NOSE DEVELOPING
AROUND 850 MB.

..MEAD.. 12/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

34368457 35818251 36778111 37558040 38097928 37167871
35897945 34458154 33818322 33588420

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