[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 081806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081806
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-090000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CST THU DEC 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN SC / WRN NC / WRN VA`

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 081806Z - 090000Z

THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY RATES OF LESS THAN 0.05 INCH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 0.05-0.15 INCH/HOUR BY MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS WRN
PARTS OF NC/VA.

REGIONAL VWPS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT PRIMARY
BRANCH OF LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY EXTENDED FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST INTO
THE TN VALLEY AS OF 17Z.  WITH NEWD PROGRESSION OF MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...SSELY LLJ WILL INTENSIFY TO 45-55 KTS ACROSS GA...THE
CAROLINAS AND SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS.  ENHANCED WAA AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL LARGELY DRIVE NWD EXPANSION OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN GA INTO SRN
SC.

BASED ON 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
WILL NEED TO OCCUR ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER BY 09/00Z...RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SATURATION THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL WITH A PRONOUNCED
WARM NOSE DEVELOPING IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER.  BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AND IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GREAT
SMOKEY MOUNTAINS AND BLUE RIDGE WHERE SURFACE COLD WEDGE IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.  FREEZING RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SLEET...WILL THEN
DEVELOP NWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN VA BETWEEN 09/00 AND 09/03Z.

..MEAD.. 12/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

35488335 36948188 37388130 37138028 35958062 34908191
34668271 34798354

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