[BNAWX] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[EMWIN Server]

FLUS44 KOHX 031000
HWOOHX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
400 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2005

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041130-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
400 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN MID STATE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES...PATCHY
LIGHT SLEET WILL MIX WITH RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK IN PARTS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN.

A VERY FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY NOON TODAY...AND TO NEAR
JONESBORO ARKANSAS BY 7 PM THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A LEAD ROUND OF SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE NORTH...TO ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER BY 7 PM THIS
EVENING. ONCE THE MID STATE GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR...LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WIND PROFILES...AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR SUPER CELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A PLUME
OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 50 KNOTS...
WILL PUNCH NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA. IN
ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY...IN
THE LOWEST 1 TO 2 KILOMETERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPER CELLS
TO DEVELOP. FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND UNTIL AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...BUT A FEW
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSTATE LATE TONIGHT...
BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AS A COLD...BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
COUNTRY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE ACTIVATED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.
$$
BOYD

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