[BNAWX] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[EMWIN Server]

FLUS44 KOHX 030846
HWOOHX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
246 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2005

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041130-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
246 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN MID STATE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES...PATCHY
LIGHT SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARD DAYBREAK IN PARTS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AFTER DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH
9 AM...THIS WILL CHANGE THE SLEET TO RAIN.

A VERY FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY NOON TODAY...AND TO NEAR
JONESBORO ARKANSAS BY 7 PM THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A LEAD ROUND OF SHOWERS...AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE NORTH...TO ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER BY 7 PM THIS
EVENING. ONCE THE MID STATE GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WIND PROFILES...AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR SUPER CELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A PLUME OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL PUNCH NORTHWARD INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY...IN THE LOWEST 1 TO 2
KILOMETERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPER CELLS TO DEVELOP.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...BUT A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSTATE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING AN END TO THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE ACTIVATED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.
$$
BOYD

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