[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon Aug 29 22:06:29 CDT 2005


ACUS11 KWNS 300306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300305
GAZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-300500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/ERN AL...FL PANHANDLE EXCEPT FAR
W...EXTREME NWRN FL PENINSULA...MUCH OF GA EXCEPT COASTAL
REGION...EXTREME NWRN SC...SERN AND EXTREME SRN-MIDDLE TN...EXTREME
SWRN NC.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 757...

VALID 300305Z - 300500Z

NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS AND OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING
NOCTURNALLY WITH GRADUAL DIABATIC COOLING OF SFC AIR MASS.
HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE AND WW SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING CONVERGENCE BAND.  AT LEAST
MARGINAL BUOYANCY IS EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER A LARGE AREA FROM SRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN GULF
COAST. MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND VWP INDICATE LARGE HODOGRAPHS  WITH
0-1 KM SRH 200-800 J/KG...DEPENDING GREATLY ON DEGREE OF RIGHTWARD
STORM DEVIANCE THAT IS INPUT.  ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF ROTATING AND PRODUCING TORNADOES.
SHEAR PROFILES DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH EWD EXTENT FROM GA/SC
BORDER.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED
CONFLUENCE/PRECIP BAND OVER ERN SEMICIRCLE OF TS KATRINA CIRCULATION
-- EXTENDING AS OF 230Z FROM MORGAN COUNTY AL SSEWD TOWARD COOSA
COUNTY...THEN SSWWD ACROSS PNS.  W OF THIS BAND...RISING ISALLOBARIC
TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED VEERING SFC FLOW RESULT IN WEAKENING
CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...BENEATH
LOW-MIDLEVEL DRYING.

..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...

34918773 35168695 35438565 35538493 35468424 35348368
34808305 34248276 33508261 32618224 32128231 31918269
31488301 30088309 29668382 29618476 29658527 29748542
30168583 30508641 30648706 31348648 32488626 32838638
33028671 34488758

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net




More information about the BNAWX mailing list