[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 220119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220119
ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-220245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...FAR W KY...EXTREME NWRN
TN...EXTREME NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180...

VALID 220119Z - 220245Z

THOUGH TSTMS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THUS FAR THIS
EVENING... THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER
03Z...THUS THE MAINTENANCE OF THE WS 180.

BLOOMFIELD PROFILER DEPICTS LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH
0-6KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS.  COMPENSATING FOR THE WEAK SHEAR...STEEP
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG-SEVERE
TSTMS...THOUGH UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS
EVENING.

WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NWD INTO SRN IL WWD TO FARMINGTON MO THEN NWWD
TO SEDALIA.  WARM SECTOR WAS CHARACTERIZED BY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE
AND SEEMS PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP.

UPSTREAM...A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BOW ECHO MAY BE EVOLVING EAST OF
THE KANSAS CITY AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY TRACK/DEVELOP ESEWD INTO
CNTRL MO AND THEN EVENTUALLY SERN MO LATER THIS EVENING.  ADDITIONAL
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE SWLY LLJ BEGINS TO ACCELERATE.  GIVEN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF
A THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF THE UPSTREAM LINEAR BAND OF STORMS BEGINS
TO FORWARD PROPAGATE TOWARD THE REGION.

..RACY.. 04/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

36009121 37599085 37618940 37848821 36668869 35958927

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