[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 122044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122041
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-122245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...NW AL

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 122041Z - 122245Z

POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL... AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL IN SLOW MOVING STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW SLOWLY
TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE.  HOWEVER...LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO
CONSOLIDATION INTO MORE SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
THIS...IN CONJUCTION WITH WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR
PROFILES...CONTINUES TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
IN STRONGEST CELLS.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON BEYOND PEAK
HEATING...AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE... AND LARGE
HAIL THREAT MAY DIMINISH BY AROUND 13/00Z.

..KERR.. 09/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

35748927 36478872 36558770 36098675 35408705 34828766
34078817 33498884 33419011 33819081 34708969



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