[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190209
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0909 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 859...860...862...

VALID 190209Z - 190415Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS.  WW 859 WILL BE REPLACED
WITH NEW WW BEFORE CURRENT 03Z EXPIRATION.

INTENSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN SOUTH OF WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AT CREST OF LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AREA. THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST...
AND CAPE FOR PARCELS BASED ABOVE SLOWLY DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL
INVERSION LAYER IS STILL ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG.

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING HOURS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO
EXTENT OF ADDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT DUE TO ONGOING SURFACE COOLING.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE...WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLING MOST SLOWLY...AND MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS
WEAKER TO THE EAST OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 10/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

36978906 37328830 37568729 37378597 36508591 36068637
35378694 34938762 34758847 34828992 35309019 35738988

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