[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181918
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-182015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2326
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR EWD ACROSS NRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 855...

VALID 181918Z - 182015Z

THE SHORT-TERM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING
ACROSS AREA. THUS...WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z.

A GENERAL DECREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST
HALF HOUR OR SO ACROSS NRN MS. THOUGH AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED EWD
AHEAD OF STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS
PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTING NE OF REGION INTO THE MIDDLE MS/ OH VALLEYS.
FARTHER W ACROSS WRN/CNTRL AR...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG
/PER 18Z LZK SOUNDING/. HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH HAS
RESULTED IN VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...DECREASING MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN RE-DEVELOPING
STORMS OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT
WOULD FORCE THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. UNLESS
ENVIRONMENTAL CLUES SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT ARE OBSERVED PRIOR TO
20Z...WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

..MEAD.. 10/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

34889291 35408828 33938826 33479290



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