[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181855
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IL AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 181855Z - 182030Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST JUST E OF WW 856
THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF THREAT AREA PRECLUDES A WW
ISSUANCE ATTM.

A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG WARM FRONT
INVOF OF PAH OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THIS
AREA HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT PAH VWP INDICATES
A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOWEST 1 KM WITH A SRH OF
150-250 M2/S2. THOUGH AMBIENT SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WELL TO THE E ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN IND
AND INTO CNTRL KY...INSTABILITY FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS
PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHES TO NEAR ZERO WITHIN 60-70 NM E OF PAH.

THUS...A SMALL SPATIAL CORRIDOR EXISTS E OF WW 856 WHICH WILL
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SMALL
GEOGRAPHICAL AREA...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

..MEAD.. 10/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

36598922 37758910 37878741 36438749 36488917

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