[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 180941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180940
ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2320
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0440 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-SRN MO/NRN AR INTO WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 854...

VALID 180940Z - 181015Z

WW 854 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z.

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR
MEDICINE LODGE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO CENTRAL MO TO
NEAR STL...AND THEN SEWD INTO WRN KY.  VADS/PROFILER DATA FROM THE
SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY SHOWED THE LLJ HAS VEERED TO SWLY AND
NOW EXTENDED FROM ERN OK/WRN AR TO ERN MO.  STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WAA
ON THE NOSE OF THIS LLJ CORRESPONDS WITH THE PERSISTENT LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY ACROSS MO/IL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO
IND/WRN KY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER MO/AR THIS
MORNING.  50-60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
SRN STATES...NOSING INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AFTER 12Z.  FARTHER N
ACROSS CENTRAL IL...WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THUS LESS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WEAKENING TREND AS STORMS MOVE INTO
THAT REGION.

..PETERS.. 10/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

36689198 37099008 39009179 39189093 39258940 38758839
36088899 36099139



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