[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[Nashville EMWIN]

ACUS11 KWNS 291742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291741
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-291945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN AR...NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN...AND NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 291741Z - 291945Z

ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FROM ERN AR EWD INTO NWRN AL...AND NWD INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS. WW NOT
ANTICIPATED.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SWRN AR NEWD INTO WRN TN.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE AN INSTABILITY AXIS
EXTENDING FROM COASTAL LA NWD ACROSS ERN AR/NRN MS INTO WRN TN.
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES IN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MINIMAL CIN AND MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
MODIFICATION OF 12Z LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING FOR 17Z SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN E-CENTRAL AR YIELDS MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4000
J/KG. DESPITE AMPLE INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY
WEAK /0-6KM SHEAR LESS THAN 10KT/. THIS SHOULD YIELD GENERALLY
SHORT-LIVED CELLS WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN
CONTINUED REGENERATION THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PW VALUES
/1.75-1.9"/ COUPLED WITH HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS /12-13 KFT/ AND EXPECTED
WEAK MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH WET MICROBURSTS.

..BANACOS.. 06/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

33719203 34029214 34479207 34819163 35189102 35459044
36288850 36508736 36478684 35528642 35168628 34818615
34328603 33748620 33288670 33118788 33098860 33098911
33098999 33119085 33259155

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net