[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[bnawx at nashvilleweather.net]

ACUS11 KWNS 122014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122014
NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-122215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL...AND TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 447...

VALID 122014Z - 122215Z

CONTINUE WW.

AT 19Z...ELONGATED EAST-WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
SLOWLY SWD ACROSS FAR NERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND NWRN/N-CENTRAL
TN. MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IS SHORT
LINE SEGMENT AND BOOKEND VORTEX MOVING EWD IN VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY IN FAR NERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL. 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-2500 J/KG JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE SHOULD MAINTAIN
CONVECTION AT SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ABSENCE OF CIN
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE REGENERATION OF UPDRAFTS ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF STORMS. MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY EWD AROUND 30 KT.

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY TRACK
EWD PARALLEL TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN A LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE CELLS
WITH PULSE CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD PERSIST DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN WHERE MLCAPE REMAINS AROUND 2000 J/KG.

..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

35009191 36579193 36618374 35028371

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