[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[Nashville EMWIN]

ACUS11 KWNS 221149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221149
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-221345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1759
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KY/SRN WV/SW VA/NW NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 221149Z - 221345Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT...BUT WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT...AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING...ON NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THROUGH THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME.

THOUGH CAPE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY LARGE DUE TO RELATIVELY
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF AIR
MASS...NEAR 2 INCHES...SUPPORTED HEAVY RAIN CORE WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SMALL WEAK DOWNBURST AND POSSIBLE EVOLVING
SURFACE COLD POOL ACROSS THE MOREHEAD KY AREA PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THIS SEGMENT OF EVOLVING LINE IS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND 40
KT...AND WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST OF JACKSON...ACROSS THE
PIKEVILLE...AREA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 14Z...AND MAY
CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO COOLER MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE CREST OF APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...WEAKENING TRENDS APPEAR LIKELY TO ENSUE.

..KERR.. 07/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

37688281 37938244 37788142 37408061 36438056 36418187
36648259 36918352 37458377 37548357

WWWW
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