[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[Nashville EMWIN]

ACUS11 KWNS 140414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140413
TNZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-140615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LWR OH/TN VLYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 140413Z - 140615Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AT THE PRESENT TIME...NEW WWS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIG FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AS SOUTHEASTWARD
PROPAGATION CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOWER
GREAT LAKES LOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT...THIS HAS ALREADY SUPPORTED INCREASING SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ON EASTERN PERIPHERY LOWER MID TROPOSPHERIC
THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.  THIS IS ON WESTERN EDGE OF ENVIRONMENT AFFECTED BY
LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN GULF STATES.

WHILE OVERTURNING ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO
MARGINALIZE ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG
STORMS WITH SOME HAIL APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING. NEWEST
AND STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 08-09Z APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR
FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

..KERR.. 07/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...

38748932 40088807 41038624 40818479 39548623 37988681
37098606 35618376 35138756 35988900 37548969

WWWW
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