[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[Nashville EMWIN]

ACUS11 KWNS 140037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140036
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-140230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 623...625...

VALID 140036Z - 140230Z

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 623 WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.
CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 625.  NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED
ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LARGE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD POOL/
MESO HIGH NOW SURGING SOUTH OF THE EVANSVILLE/LOUISVILLE AREAS INTO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT AROUND 40 KT.  AT THIS RATE...GUST FRONT LIKELY
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER INTO THE NASHVILLE
AREA DURING THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF A BIT FROM PEAK
HEATING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...STRUCTURE OF THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID-LEVELS/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG GUST
FRONT DEEP INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEY.  WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME INTO WESTERN FLANK OF COLD
POOL WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AND CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG WITH HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR WILL FAVOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH SOME HAIL...AND LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS IN TRAINING CELLS.

..KERR.. 07/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

38538826 37718727 37408628 37998564 38458495 38668447
38508386 37688321 36628362 36078416 35628512 35298612
35418705 35848812 36718824 38458871

WWWW
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