[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[Nashville EMWIN]

ACUS11 KWNS 041538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041538
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-041745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR/WRN TN/NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547...

VALID 041538Z - 041745Z

CONTINUE WW...ADDITIONAL WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED EASTWARD ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 17-18Z.

DESPITE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF GUST FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION
IN EXCESS OF 40 KT IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INFLOW OF VERY MOIST
AIR MASS.  SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...AND DAYTIME HEATING/DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ERODING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS STILL EVIDENT IN VAD
WIND DATA UPSTREAM OF CLUSTER ACROSS THE OZARKS...AND MODELS ARE
LIKELY TOO FAST IN WEAKENING THIS FEATURE AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF
OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING ROOTED IN BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION EXISTS AS IT SPREADS THROUGH THE DYERSBURG/MEMPHIS
AREAS DURING THE 17-18Z TIME FRAME.

SQUALL LINE WITH SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
NASHVILLE TN...TUPELO/COLUMBUS MS...AND FLORENCE/HUNTSVILLE AREAS BY
21-22Z.

..KERR.. 07/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

36499112 36618899 36508653 36038538 34898592 34008745
33618926 33649020 33999117 34669184 35319137 35879114

WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net