[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 220705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220704
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/NRN AR...SRN IL/IND...FAR NRN/WRN KY AND
SERN OH

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION

VALID 220704Z - 221300Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION THROUGH 12Z...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW /HRLY RATES UP TO 1
INCH/ ANTICIPATED ALONG A 30 MILE WIDE AXIS CENTERED FROM UNO TO BMG
THROUGH 13Z. FARTHER SOUTH...THE RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OF SERN OH..NRN/WRN KY  SWWD
INTO NERN AR.

LATEST TRENDS IN IR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WERE
INCREASING OVER THE REGION AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
SRN ROCKIES. STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO ORIENT
ITSELF ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE/UPPER JET AXIS FROM NRN AR
INTO SRN IND OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS SUPPORTING INCREASING SNOWFALL
RATES. LOW LEVEL CAA AND SATURATION WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN SWD
MOTION OF SFC WET BULB FREEZING LINE TO A LITTLE ROCK TO CINCINNATI
LINE BY 13Z. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL CAA SUPPORTS THE SWD
MOVEMENT OF THE SFC FREEZING LINE...MOD-STRONG WAA IN THE 850-925 MB
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SWD MOTION OF THIS LAYER/S FREEZING
ISOTHERM AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS...A NARROW ZONE...LESS THAN
50 MILES WIDE OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP SWD AND EXTEND FROM NERN AR INTO FAR WRN/NRN
KY AND SERN OH BY 13Z.

..CROSBIE.. 12/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

38728382 37918554 37548635 36688857 36288925 35659023
35229172 35619308 36349256 37599043 38418922 39168737
39468473



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