[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 070352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070351
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-070545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL AREA...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 070351Z - 070545Z

RELATIVELY DISCRETE CONVECTION IS STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE
ACROSS PORTIONS NERN AR.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA.  STRONG GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUBSEQUENT
PASSAGE OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND.

AIR MASS ACROSS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND LOW-MID 60S F SFC TEMPS.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT SFC TEMPS AOA 70 F WOULD BE NEEDED TO YIELD NEARLY SFC
BASED PARCEL.  HOWEVER...ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS IN SUCH A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WITH
60-70 KT FLOW EVIDENT AROUND 6 KM AGL. NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL
WAA AND MOISTENING...ABOVE COOL NEAR-SFC LAYER...WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF LINE OVER THIS REGION.

..EDWARDS.. 12/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

34539274 35719190 36399102 36479015 36498953 36468922
35828878 35168954 34629028 34439088



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